Sheep Market Commentary and Outlook
This year,听deadweight prices initially听declined,听dropping to鈥痑鈥痩ow鈥痮f 678.7鈥痯/kg鈥�(w/c鈥�31听Jan) which unusually coincided with a drop in supply. Despite this, prices remained strong compared to 2025.听February听has recorded听recovery with prices听increasing again听just marginally behind 2025 prices throughout the month. This increase in demand听coincided听with鈥痶he start of Ramadan听on 17 February.听Religious听festivals听are undoubtedly a key driver for our sheep market听with 30% of UK sheep meat consumed going to听6.5%听of the population听in the UK (AHDB, 2024). This demand听has led to听deadweight prices peaking this year above the 2025 high at 765.5ppkg (w/c 7 March).
From mid-February听onwards we听have鈥痵een听an increase in听the听number鈥痮f鈥痮ld season lambs鈥痗ulled鈥痗ompared鈥痶o this time last year听(+30.7%).鈥�疨erhaps a鈥痳esponse to demand but also听an indication听of an increased number of听lambs鈥痜inishing later this season;鈥痬aybe鈥痭ot鈥痑 surprise given鈥痙rought conditions and forage shortages in many areas听in 2025听which will have undoubtedly鈥痠mpacted鈥痮n the鈥痚arly growth rate鈥痮f lambs.听听
In their latest market output,鈥疉HDB has estimated a 1% increase in鈥痩ambs carried over into 2026 from last year.鈥�疞iveweight has followed鈥痑 very similar鈥痶rend with鈥痵tandard to鈥痬edium hoggs鈥�(32.1-45.5kg LW)鈥痝aining a stronger price per听kg highlighting a demand for听well finishing听lambs.听鈥��听
Source: AHDB, 2026
The cast ewe trade听remains听strong and is听currently in line with averages鈥痵een this time last year.鈥��听
2026 so far has also seen changes to grading and reporting for lambs with standardisation of dressing specifications and weighing methods, which should improve transparency and price reporting accuracy. The introduction of a new 鈥淪鈥� (Superior) grade which lies above鈥痶he鈥�淓鈥濃��(Excellent)鈥痝rade听will听help better reflect carcase quality.鈥疶his听has also meant a change to reporting moving forward due to a requirement for all abattoirs to report price.听
Price information will now be published for prime sheep falling within the SQQ weight band (12 kg to 21.5 kg) and dressed to UK-standard specification (kidney knobs, channel fat and diaphragm skirt removed).听A听positive step to improve accuracy and quality of sheep industry market data moving forward.听听
The global market听听
Sheep numbers and lamb sales are continuing to constrict in Australia with slaughter numbers of both sheep and lamb for听week听commencing听6 March听down 22%听year on year.听This has been听predominantly driven听by poor seasonal conditions. The flock rebuild听expected to start in 2026听is likely to be gradual due to the smaller breeding flock and poorer scans.听However,听we are likely to see an increase in Australian supply over time coupled with an increase in听efficiency with average carcass weights increasing by around 1kg over the last 3 years. Demonstrating a move to producing more from less.听听
In 2025,鈥疦ew Zealand听recorded听a 2% increase in lamb numbers compared with 2024,鈥痓ut鈥痳emains鈥痑 low threat compared to historic years due to鈥痶heir鈥痩ong-term鈥痜lock contraction with breeding number continuing to see a decline.听
Both countries are target growth markets听for听Asia and the US. With the US听remaining听a听key听target market. However imposed tariffs are making this slightly more challenging despite the reduction from 15% to 10% being welcomed. With growing unrest this could lead in听an听increase in Australian lamb coming towards the UK which may pose a听long-term听risk for the听UK听domestic price.听听
The EU however听remains听a key location for our听UK lamb听with export volumes increasing last year by 9% despite higher prices with key markets being France, Germany, Belgium,听Italy听and the Netherlands.听听
Market听outlook听听
Tight domestic and EU supply, resilient export鈥痙emand听particularly from the EU,鈥痑nd constrained global production鈥痯rovide a solid听potential听market听going into the rest of the year. However, global competition and听current听events听leading to potential political unrest听mean volatility鈥痳emains鈥痑 risk鈥痠n the longer term.鈥�听
Lorna Shaw, Ruminant Nutritionist,听Lorna.Shaw@sac.co.uk
Posted by SAC Consulting on 16/03/2026
